Director of the Program on Peace-building
and Rights, Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights
Posted: 07/30/2015 4:09 pm EDT Updated: 07/30/2015 4:59 pm EDT
Storm
clouds are gathering. Turkey has a dark future. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
bears responsibility. His policies have made Turkey less secure, stable, and
solvent. Erdogan is digging a hole for Turkey. Instead of getting out of the
ditch, he keeps digging, casting aspersions and blaming others for Turkey's
problems.
On July
24, the US and Turkey announced an agreement allowing use of Turkey's Incirlik
Air Base by the coalition for air strikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Erdogan seized on the deal to bomb PKK outposts in the Qandil Mountains of
Iraqi Kurdistan.
To the
West, counter-terrorism means fighting ISIS. To Erdogan it means killing Kurds.
Erdogan cannot whitewash his true intentions by feigning cooperation with the
coalition. At the recent NATO meeting, several countries expressed concern that
targeting Kurds would strengthen ISIS.
Erdogan
justifies air strikes, citing the killing of 2 policemen by the PKK. The PKK
claims that the police officers were collaborating with ISIS, allowing the
bombing of a Youth Center in Suruc earlier in the week that killed 32 people.
Turkey has been the Islamic State's lifeline. The jihadi highway runs through
Turkey to Syria. Turks provide logistics, funds, weapons, and medical care to
Islamic State fighters.
Erdogan
set the bait after Suruc; the PKK took it. Now violence is spiraling out of
control.
Erdogan
says the bombing campaign will go on indefinitely. He is recklessly leading
Turkey into a state of perpetual war. Richard Holbrooke said of Milosevic,
"He tried to solve a problem by creating a bigger one." Erdogan is
doing the same thing.
Escalation
comes at a time of waning legitimacy for Erdogan. He is waging war as the
figurehead of a lame duck party. His Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost
its parliamentary majority and moral authority during national elections on
June 7.
Provoking
the PKK is a brazen ploy to create a crisis. Erdogan is pandering to
nationalists, demonizing the PKK, and marginalizing Kurds in Turkey who number
20 million. On July 30, the Turkish government has arrested over 350 Kurdish
community activists.
It seems
that Erdogan is angling for new elections. He is trying to discredit the
People's Democratic Party (HDP), a pro-Kurdish party which received 13.1% of
the votes and will be seated in parliament for the first time. Erdogan is
furious with the HDP for its strong showing, which denied the AKP enough
support to change the constitution and establish an executive imperial
presidency. In retaliation, Erdogan is threatening to lift the parliamentary
immunity of HDP legislators. He's even intimated at closing the HDP for
supporting the PKK.
Attacking
the PKK effectively undermined the peace process. Two years ago, the PKK
initiated a unilateral ceasefire and sought talks to end its armed struggle for
greater cultural and political rights. Social divisions in Turkey are worse
today than any time in recent memory. The risk of renewed civil war looms
large.
War-mongering
also has an economic cost. Turkey's over-heated economy is highly leveraged.
Corruption is rampant in Erdogan's inner circle. Erdogan fears that the
newly-elected parliament could open corruption and mismanagement dossiers,
targeting the AKP and its leadership.
Erdogan
conjures enemies at home and abroad, using fear to manipulate the electorate.
He accuses the pious Gulen Movement of plotting to establish a parallel
administration and overthrow his government. He has arrested hundreds of
administrators, judges, and law enforcement officials with ties to Gulen.
Erdogan
wants Turks to blame others for the country's problems. However, there will be
a tipping point when they blame Erdogan for mismanaging Turkey's affairs,
endangering its security, and turning a blind eye to criminal profiteering by
his friends and family.
Turks
are hardworking and hospitable. They are a noble people. Erdogan has abused
their trust in a perverse pursuit of power. Turkey has a dark future.
David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and
Rights at Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He
served as a senior adviser and foreign affairs expert to the U.S. State
Department. His recent book is The Kurdish Spring: A New Map
for the Middle East.
