Svante E. Cornell
Halil Magnus Karaveli
SILK ROAD PAPER October 2008
Turkey in 2023: the Republic at 100
Scenario One: A More Conservative Turkey
In this scenario, the republic that celebrates its 100th anniversary is a markedly more conservative nation than what its founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, had once envisaged. Yet, it is also a country with strong, secular traditions that continues to set it apart among most other Muslim countries. Turkey has by no means become an Islamic state, ruled by the Sharia. But Islamic conservatism has become established as the dominant societal force. The co-existence of two divergent world-views – religious conservatism and secularism – will have continued to generate friction, and to furnish Turkish politics with a defining context.
In its second term in power (2007-2011) the AKP government was severely tested by a global economic crisis, which threatened to reconfigure the dynamics and alignments that had once opened the gates of power for it. The flight of foreign capital in particular during the global crisis revealed the vulnerabilities of the Turkish economy, and made it difficult for the AKP to maintain the generous welfare policies which had contributed to its victory in the elections of 2007.
Yet, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan once again proved that he is an astute leader, capable of overcoming dire challenges. The AKP recovered, and won the elections held in 2011. The main opposition party, the secularist and nationalist Republican people’s party, CHP, had once again failed to evolve into a modern social democratic force, and hence remained more or less marginalized. Instead, a new centrist force emerged as the main opposition party, together with the far-right MHP. In 2014, Turkey held its first popular election for president; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won with a large margin and succeeded Abdullah Gül, who became prime minister. Erdoğan was re-elected in 2019.
The continued marginalization of the opposition made it difficult for the AKP to control its authoritarian impulse to have it all; a new political crisis erupted in 2011 when President Gül appointed Islamic-oriented judges to the Constitutional court. However, the new constitution that the AKP had tailored and put to referendum in 2010 had already curtailed the powers of the court, which could no longer rule on the closure of political parties, except when they were involved in acts of violence. Yet, the Chief of Staff, General Işık Koşaner, reacted sharply to the appointments to the court, and issued a
warning that the principles of Atatürk had to be respected. As had happened in 2007-2008, the military, fearful of scaring off foreign investments, and failing to receive a green light for a coup from Washington, had to content itself with issuing a verbal warning, after which it got back to business-asusual with the Islamic conservative government.
The AKP managed to keep the Kurdish issue under control. Islamic loyalty proved more powerful than the nationalist temptation. Yet, the Kurdish PKK continued to cause trouble. Its acts of violence sparked Turkish nationalism, and occasionally exacerbated tensions between Turks and Kurds in the western and southern parts of the country. Secular opinion remained politically marginalized, and was increasingly attracted to anti-Islamist and anti-western neo-nationalism.
2008
