Svante E. Cornell
Halil Magnus Karaveli
SILK ROAD PAPER October 2008
Turkey in 2023: the Republic at 100
Judging the Likelihood of Scenarios
Attributing degrees of likelihood to the three scenarios mentioned above is necessarily tentative. The least probable scenario is the third, which appears at best a possible result of a confluence of negative trends. As for scenario one, it is fully plausible given the strength and clarity of current trends in Turkey. Yet a reading of recent history also suggests that the prospect of a linear development in Turkey is not probable, and that any ruling coalition is likely to be weakened and replaced within the timeframe envisaged in this study. That leaves scenario two, which is by far the most optimistic scenario for Turkey’s future. Again, that scenario may appear to be wishful thinking given the current acrimonies of Turkish politics and the growing “culture wars”, to borrow and American term, in society. In the final analysis, the most likely development for Turkey lies in some form of combination of the event foreseen in scenarios one and two.
