Secretary
of State Rex Tillerson (left) looks on as Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu speaks during a joint news conference in Ankara, on March 30, | Adem
Altan/AFP/Getty Images
Following Turkey’s incursion into Syria, the once unthinkable
prospect of a direct clash between Turkish and American soldiers has become
alarmingly real. Turkey’s current fight, against U.S.-backed Kurdish troops in
the northwestern Syria territory of Afrin, is destabilizing enough. But the
real risk will come if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan follows through
on his repeated promises to press further east toward the Kurdish-controlled
and U.S.-patrolled city of Manbij. The only way to prevent a conflict is for
U.S. policymakers to adopt a clear and tough-minded approach to Turkey now,
before things get worse.
Threatening U.S. forces in Manbij—Erdogan has said he would be
forced to “bury” them and warned that although “they tell us ‘don’t come to
Manbij,’” Turkey “will come to Manbij” — could irrevocably damage the
decades-long U.S.-Turkish alliance, which is already under strain from a
combination of Erdogan’s deepening authoritarianism, flirtation with Russia and
conflicting interests in Syria. A clear U.S. statement that this would be
intolerable, backed by an effective deterrent posture, is necessary to prevent
outright U.S.-Turkish hostilities and preserve any hope of a functional
relationship going forward.
Unfortunately, until now a cacophony of mixed American messages,
combined with a longstanding tendency to treat Turkey gingerly, has convinced
Erdogan that Washington sees its relationship with Ankara as too important to
fail. This only increases his appetite for risk—and thus the potential for
conflict. Ankara must be made to understand the dire consequences of attacking
Manbij, and Washington must be prepared to follow through.
Though reckless, a Turkish attack on Manbij would be consistent
with Erdogan’s habitual disregard for the alliance that has bound the United
States and Turkey together since 1950. Under Erdogan, Turkey carried out one of
the largest recorded efforts to evade U.S.-sponsored international sanctions on
Iran. Its media published maps of secret U.S. bases in Syria. It arrested an
American pastor, a NASA employee and two Turkish employees of the U.S. State Department,
on spurious charges, holding them as Erdogan’s de facto hostages. Last spring,
Erdogan’s authoritarian lawlessness reached American shores when his bodyguards
attacked protestors in Washington. Now, Turkey is purchasing a state-of-the-art
air and missile defense system from Russia (that will be incompatible with NATO
systems) and attacking U.S. partners in Syria, presenting both as part of the
country’s heroic resistance to U.S. imperialism.
The U.S. response to these provocations has been driven by the
hope that treating Turkey like a good ally eventually will convince it to
resume behaving like one. A Turkish banker was convicted in a New York court
for helping Tehran evade sanctions, but the Turkish regime’s complicity has
gone unpunished. Washington started getting tough with Ankara for arresting
U.S. government employees—imposing sweeping visa restrictions on Turkish
citizens, causing the Turkish lira immediately to drop 3.1 percent—but backed
off … without securing the release of its employees.
The current administration’s inability to communicate U.S.
positions clearly makes matters worse. Prior to Turkey’s Afrin operation, the
Pentagon announced a new U.S.-trained, predominantly Kurdish “Border Protection
Force” in eastern Syria. When Turkey objected, the State Department effectively
walked back the announcement. More troubling, after President Donald Trump
spoke to Erdogan about Turkey’s current military operation, the Turkish leader
denied the White House assertion that Trump had expressed his concern about the
possibility of a clash between U.S. and Turkish forces. Whether the president
was unclear, the Turks had selective hearing, or, as seems entirely likely,
some combination of the two, the result is destabilizing.
Unfortunately, the administration’s lack of clear messaging has
only reinforced Erdogan’s conviction that the United States will not
meaningfully challenge him.
Washington needs to clearly and explicitly spell out the
consequences that will result if Turkey attacks positions where U.S. troops are
embedded. This should take the form of a version of the tough-minded and
transactional approach that has characterized Russo-Turkish relations over the
past several years. At the very least, sanctions targeting the Turkish defense
industry, financial sector and potentially officials tied to corruption—already
warranted by Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 and involvement in Iranian
sanctions evasion—should be on the table.
Washington’s goal should not be confrontation with Ankara for
confrontation’s sake, or just because it is “mad” at Erdogan. Rather the aim
should be establishing the conditions—and the ground rules—for constructive
engagement. To that end, the White House should pair a firm approach with
high-level engagement aimed at finding a better path forward. The recent U.S.
strikes against pro-Syrian forces that attacked a base of Kurdish and U.S.
troops could be used to demonstrate to Turkey American resolve to protect its
own and partner forces, but only if expressed in a clear and direct dialogue
with Turkish leadership.
Hopefully, national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster and
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will communicate this message during their
visits to Ankara. But much more is needed than just one-off warnings. Even if a
conflict over Manbij can be avoided now, the United States and Turkey will
remain on a collision course without a sustained, high-level dialogue, for
example simultaneously between the secretaries of state and defense and their
Turkish counterparts, to work out the strategic parameters for U.S.-Turkish
relations in the Levant and beyond. These considerations should include a due
regard for Turkey’s legitimate security concerns vis-à-vis the Syrian Kurds as
well as a U.S. offer to help get Turkish-Kurdish negotiations back on track.
Ultimately, if Erdogan is determined to destroy the U.S.-Turkish
alliance, there is nothing Trump or anyone can do to stop him. But being clear
and consistent about the stakes involved can help ensure that Turkey’s volatile
leader does not stumble past the point of no return thinking the United States
will not respond. Let’s not wait to use our leverage until it is too late.
By ERIC EDELMAN and JAKE SULLIVAN
February 13, 2018
POLITICO
Eric
Edelman, is a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and under secretary of defense
for policy.
Jake Sullivan, previously national security adviser to Vice
President Joe Biden, serve as co-chairs of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Task
Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East.
