On April 16, Turkish voters will
decide if President Erdogan will maintain the presidential powers he has held
in practice since instituting a state of emergency after the failed coup
attempt in July 2016. The new constitutional amendment will centralize his
power, giving massive authority over legislature and judiciary without a proper
checks and balances system. Though NATO and Europe have dealt with autocratic
leaders in member states before, the situation with Turkey’s leadership is
setting the conditions for a serious security risk to the Alliance.
United by Values?
NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg continually reiterates the core principles outlined by signatories of the
Washington Treaty: “Democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of the media,
independence of the judiciary, protection of minorities. These are the values
that unite us. They are the values NATO has defended since its foundation in
1949.”
But are these values truly upheld by
all Allies? Despite the Turkish government’s promise to foster democratic
principles in the last decade, Turkey has drifted sharply away from these
values under the rule of President Erdogan. Contrary to Ataturk’s secular
Turkey, Erdogan’s government is far from being a bridge between East and West.
His new regime is using religion as a political tool to consolidate his
internal power and project his authority abroad.
Under his rule, freedom of expression
has been eliminated through intimidation, and violation of basic human rights
is not a rare phenomenon. As a member nation, Turkey is capable of blocking the
decisions on defending critical values — as already evidenced by Turkey’s refusal to allow
military training with NATO partner nations due to the political tensions with
Austria.
Heightened political tensions between
the Turkish government and its NATO Allies are initial indications of the
potential future security crisis for Europe. By exploiting this tense
situation, the Turkish government has created propaganda material against the
West, even going as far as to explicitly
threaten European countries to not feel safe
in their homelands if the diplomatic row continues.
Erdogan’s attempts to mobilize the
considerable Turkish diaspora in Europe with strong rhetoric should not be
taken lightly. If Erdogan attains his goals via referendum, he will completely
dismantle the foundation of the Turkish secular republic. Thus, post-referendum
Turkey would no longer be a true ally but rather an unpredictable one.
Turkey Turns East
Once backed by NATO against Russia during the
downed jet crisis in November 2015, the Turkish government initiated the
normalization of highly-tensioned relations with Russia after the failed coup
attempt in Turkey.
The new partners, Russia and Turkey,
have held positive discussions on Syria, on the construction of a nuclear power plant, and likely
sale of
Russian S-400 long-range air and missile defence system. Additionally, Turkey’s
appointment by Russia and China to chair the 2017 Energy Club of Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) was a significant indication of her divergence from the West. And in the
most concerning move toward the East, Turkey signed an intelligence sharing agreement with Russia.
Although European institutions
typically analyse this rapprochement as a tactical manoeuvre before the
referendum, it seems to have already started providing strategic outcomes.
The methods Erdogan has used against
Europe are evolving to be similar to those used by President Putin. Turkey,
though, has an additional tool of leverage that can be traced within the
Turkish diaspora in Europe. The revealed ill-favoured intelligence activities of Turkish government among the Turkish origin European
citizens is similar to Russian intelligence activities in Ukraine.
State-sponsored AK Trolls operate in social media channels
very similarly to Putin’s Kremlin Troll
Army. Such integration between Russia and
Turkey would certainly be a worrying development for NATO’s cohesion.
Seeking Alternatives
The EU-Turkey Refugee Deal, as well
as the country’s geostrategic location are important points of leverage for
President Erdogan. In the fight against ISIS, for example, the West is leaning
on Turkey to provide staging areas for equipment and aircraft, and seeks agreement on
opposition targets. Particularly for countering the threats and risks emanating
from the South, it is important that the cooperation and partnership with
Turkey remains solid.
However, there is no doubt that
Erdogan’s new Turkey will not maintain a foundation for a feasible alliance
with Europe. It is worth remembering that many in the Turkish public are also
looking for alternatives to Erdogan’s regime. Current public opinion polls show that around 50 percent of
Turkish voters who do not support the constitutional change seem extremely oppressed
by fear.
As indications of Turkish deviation
from the West are growing each day, Europe needs to set priorities for
mitigating this risk. Otherwise, Erdogan’s Turkey will likely turn from a NATO
ally to a source of instability for the entire region.
Fatih Yilmaz
11.04.2017
https://www.martenscentre.eu/blog/nato-ally-or-insider-threat-how-turkeys-referendum-vote-will-affect-european-security
